So, the day after demonetization stole the show in India, the world was ‘Trumped’.
Yeah, we are writing about Donald Trump, the President elect of United States of America. People around the world were shocked after the results were out. They were thinking clear mandate for former First Lady and Presidential candidate of Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton. Everyone could vividly remember how did she rip apart Trump and win all three presidential debates giving the message that she is the one United States people should elect. But somehow Americans were not impressed by her debating prowess, instead they liked outspoken, rough n tough attitude of Donald Trump and a major upset was witnessed.’Stronger Together’ turned into ‘Divided Weaker’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ reached out to people’s hearts. It can be surely said today ‘Predict anything, but don’t ever take a shot at Politics’.
India as a nation and a rising political, economical power would have a larger impact on itself of this unexpected crowning. We thought to pen down the probable effects on India in various aspects and make some prediction (not political though). Before taking you through that journey let’s glance at how the Presidential Election takes place in America.
There are 50 states in America from West Coast to East Coast. American President is elected by Electoral College and not by the popular vote. So what’s electoral college? Each state has a certain population and depending upon it, there are predefined number of electors of state. This electors actually elect the President. These electors are nothing but the candidates who pledge to support one of the Presidential candidates.The common voters i.e a common American citizen when votes for a presidential candidate, actually is voting for such electors who in turn vote for electing the President.Every elector has 1 vote to his/her credit.The presidential candidate who gets majority of votes in a state, all the electors who pledge for that candidate in a state are selected. This is called ‘Winner-Takes-All’ policy. 48 of the top 50 states have approved this policy. Maine and Nebraska are the two exceptions using Congressional District Method. In these two states, one elector is elected based on total popular vote while gives two additional electoral votes based on statewide popular vote. This is how total 538 electors are selected who ultimately choose their President. 435 of them are Congressmen, 100 are senators and remaining 3 are District of Columbia electors. Hence when a candidate gets more than half votes of electoral college i.e. 270 or more, the candidate is elected as President. The system seems a bit unfair to us because of its Winner-Takes-All policy but it was a Constitutional remedy as the US’s founders saw it as a compromise between electing the President by a popular vote among citizens and electing the President in Congress.It reduces importance of Popular Vote. We can vividly see many times even though a candidate gets more popular votes but couldn’t achieve majority of electors which he wants to achieve. This Presidential election is a very good example of this problem. Though Hillary Clinton has more popular votes, Trump is President-elect as he has achieved electoral college majority.
So, as now the US will be in the Trump’s regime for the next four years, it would be interesting to watch how the dynamics shift not only for US but of other nations too. Let’s take a look on how India had its say in this elections and also the probable impact of Trump’s regime on India and Indian citizens per se.
Abki bar Trump Sarkar:
In an advertisement launched by Trump during his campaign days started with Diwali greetings and yes, it marked its end by the words none other than “Abki Bar Trump Sarkar”. Truly an Indian campaign launched to make the Indian voters attract towards him. Nevertheless to mention that Indian community in US is widely acknowledged and can’t be kept ignored.
Business: As I have it in India too….
Trump has a been involved in real estate partnerships in Pune, Mumbai,Gurgaon and Kolkata according to external sources and, India is 2nd largest market for this newly elected American President.The business ties matter the most, and India can be in a position to bank on this favorable situation in a long term aspect.
No outsourcing anywhere? ( yeah that would include India too):
With Trump’s proposition of taxing 15% on companies who outsource their work through his book written in 2011 ‘ Time to Get Tough – Making America #1 Again’ would make India worry. As per external sources, nearly 60% of the globally outsourced services are accounted for by the US and majority of those are being outsourced in India.But, owing to such a huge scale of outsourcing done by the US and the low priced scale yet qualitative services that the Indians provide would make it difficult for America’s newly elect to take this decision in near future as it would badly hamper US economy.
Want to export to US, splurge a bit more and injure US even more:
Further Trump has also proposed in the same book as mentioned in above para, to levy 20% import duty on imports to US. India accounts for 40.4 US $ billion which is 15.3% of its total exports. They include precious stones, pharmaceutical products, mineral fuel, organic chemicals,textile articles, tree nuts, spices, essential oils, rice and vegetable oil. India also exports to US commercial as well as private services. With such a diversified export of India and that too, with a product chain that includes eatables and essentials, it could be a near to disaster move to impose any sanctions by way of increase in the import duty by US.
Thinking of business or education in America? Hope it won’t remain a dream:
Been it Hillary today, Indian business seekers and student’s having H-1B visas would have rejoiced aloud as she has a ready document about how this visa can be converted to Green cards without any problems. Trump’s view regarding granting visa’s itself are not very optimistic.As per his quotes of March “I will end forever the use of the H-1B as a cheap labour program, and institute an absolute requirement to hire American workers first for every visa and immigration program. No exceptions,” This has a high probability of coming into picture in foreseen future. It would rise the cost of businesses in US who tend to hire Indians into their companies. Moreover, students who have planned to get to US for further studies may also find it difficult to find a place there, with F1 and M1 visas to avail, if restrictions on H-1B visa are exercised.
100% FDI in defense can now bear more fruits for India:
Republican is an aggressive party and Donald Trump’s attitude can not be an exception to the party’s behavior. It is the trigger point where majority Indian private players in defense can bank on.With aggressive policy, republicans though for on-going conflicts with other nations or for keeping themselves equipped with arms may go for a buying streak of weapons created in India. Though, As discussed above, soon to be sworn as President may impose heavy import duty on imports to America, Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ policy and 100% FDI opening may come to rescue of this export business.
Yet another surgical strike against terrorism?
Could Trump, as he has said ,join hands with Russia( and India would support the same too) and put an end to ISIS or terrorism as whole?If these three super-powers arrange a team of their own, terrorism may find its place in only dictionaries only to soon fade from there too.
With a stretch of imagination, such an aggressive policy can lead to taxing the remittances too, from US to India.Nevertheless, it has to be mentioned here before bidding you all adieu, that being American President and at the acme of American Politics doesn’t allow him to formulate policies of the state and especially the internal policies alone as it has varied interests of Senators, different lobbyists, think tanks, nations and world organisations and can be only known by him he enters White House. So let’s wait and watch US playing ‘Trump’ cards… (until it won’t affect India)
So, let’s end it here while we promise you that we would be back soon with yet another write-up, analysis and research!!!
Shreyas Godbole Anup Shaha
Image source: Google Images